Idan kana bibiyar labaran tattalin arzikin Thailand, za ka iya ganin wani labari mai kama da farin ciki: bashin iyalan Thailand yana raguwa. Amma kafin ka yi murna a madadin su, ka sani cewa wannan ba alamar samun kudi ba ce, alamar rashin samun rance ce. Bankunan Thailand sun tsaurara sharuddan bada lamuni, kuma wannan yana canza yanayin kasuwar gidaje ta hanyar da za ta iya amfanar da kai idan kana shirin saka jari a Phuket ko Bangkok.
Amsa a Takaice (Abin da Kake Bukatar Sani Yanzu)
Bankin Kasar Thailand (Bank of Thailand) ya ba da rahoton cewa bashin iyalai zuwa GDP ya faɗi daga kololuwar 90.8% a shekarar 2021 zuwa ƙasa da 86% a farkon 2026. Dalilin ba wai Thai-awa sun samu wadata ba ne, sai dai bankuna sun tsaurara sharuddan lamuni kuma sun ƙara yawan kuɗin gaba (down payment) da ake bukata. Wannan ya sa kasuwar gidaje ta Thailand ta shiga shekara ta huɗu a jere na koma-baya, kamar yadda jaridar The Business Times ta bayyana, saboda matsalar bashi da tsauraran sharuddan lamuni suna sanyaya bukatar cikin gida.
Ga mai saka jari na kasashen waje wanda zai saya da tsabar kudi ko kuma ya shirya lamuni daga kasarsa, wannan yanayin yana bude wa taga dama. Amma don cin gajiyar hakan, sai ka fahimci ainihin abin da ke faruwa a bayan wadannan lambobi.
Muhimman Batutuwa a Takaice
- Bashin iyalai zuwa GDP ya sauka daga kololuwar 90.8% (2021) zuwa ƙasa da 86% a farkon 2026
- Raguwar ta samo asali ne daga tsaurarawar manufofin lamunin banki, ba wai karuwar kudaden shiga na iyalai ba
- Yawan sabbin lamunin gida a Thailand ya ragu sosai, wanda ke raunana bukatar gidaje na cikin gida
- Kudin ruwa na manufa (policy rate) na Bankin Kasar Thailand yana tsaye a 2.25%, yayin da matsakaicin kudin ruwa na lamunin gida ga masu ba'a Thailand ke tsakanin 5.5-7.5% kowace shekara
- Masu saye na kasashen waje masu kudin tsabar kudi suna samun ƙarfin shawarwari (negotiating power) mai kyau wajen sayen condominium yayin da bukatar cikin gida ke raguwa
- Masu ginin gidaje a Bangkok da Phuket suna ƙara ba da rangwame da kayan alfarma domin ci gaba da sayarwa, kuma suna neman masu saye na kasashen waje domin gyara asarar da suke fama da ita
Ainihin Bayanai da Alkaluma
- Bankin Kasar Thailand ya rubuta faɗuwar rabon bashin iyalai zuwa GDP a jere na kwata uku (rahoton manufofin kudi na Bankin Kasar Thailand)
- An kiyasta cewa yawan kin amincewa da neman lamunin gida ya karu da 15-20% idan aka kwatanta da 2024
- Iyakar Loan-to-Value (LTV) a kan gida na biyu da na uku har yanzu tana da tsauri, an daure ta a tsakanin 70-80% na darajar da aka tantance
- Hajojin condominium da ba a sayar ba a Bangkok sun wuce rukunin gidaje 65,000, kamar yadda Hukumar Harkokin Real Estate (AREA) ta bayyana
- Matsakaicin farashin sabbin condominium a Bangkok yana tsakanin THB 120,000-180,000 kowace murabba'in mita dangane da yankin, yayin da manyan gine-gine na alfarma ke ci gaba da kai farashin sama da THB 100,000 kowace murabba'in mita ga masu saye na kasashen waje
- Bakin haure na iya mallakar condominium a karkashin kason mallakar bakin haure na 49% a kowane gini, kuma wannan kason yana cika da sauri a shahararrun gine-gine yayin da bukata ke koma ga masu saye na kasashen waje
- Tsare-tsaren biyan kudi na masu ginin gidaje sun tsawaita, wasu suna bayar da sharuddan biyan kudi ba tare da ruwa ba na tsawon watanni 36
- Phuket ta zama kasuwar gidaje mafi budewa ga duniya a Thailand, inda masu saye na kasashen waje ke taimaka wa dukkanin kasar ta hanyar bukatar gida na biyu, saka jarin haya, da tafiya zuwa zama
Me Ya Sa Faduwar Bashi Ba Labari Ne Mai Kyau Ba Ga Kasuwar Gidaje?
Idan bashi ya ragu saboda an tsaurara lamuni, ba saboda kudaden shiga sun karu ba, wannan alama ce ta raguwar bukatar masu saye. Iyalan Thailand ba su wadata ba, kawai ba za su iya samun lamuni ba. Wannan yana bayyana kansa a kasuwar gidaje ta hanyar raguwar cinikayya a bangaren gidaje na talakawa masu farashin har zuwa THB miliyan 3.
Ta Yaya Wannan Ke Shafar Farashin Condominium Ga Masu Saye Na Kasashen Waje?
Babu wani faduwar farashi kai tsaye. A maimakon haka, masu ginin gidaje sun fi son ba da rangwame boye: kayan daki kyauta, tabbatar da mayar da riba na haya, da tsare-tsaren biyan kudi na dogon lokaci. Ainihin rangwamen da za a iya samu daga farashin jerin gwano zai iya kai 5-12% dangane da aikin da matakin gini.
Shin Bakin Haure Za Su Iya Samun Lamunin Gida Daga Bankin Thailand?
A ka'ida, e. A aikace, kusan babu. Bankuna kalilan ne kawai (misali UOB, ICBC Thailand) ke duba neman lamuni daga wadanda ba mazauna Thailand ba, kuma sharuddansu suna da tsauri: ana bukatar biyan kaso na 30-50% a gaba, kudin ruwa na 6-8% kowace shekara, da kuma tabbatar da kudin shiga a Thailand ko a kasar da bankin yake.
Ya Kamata Masu Saye Su Jira Bankin Kasar Thailand Ya Rage Kudin Ruwa Kara?
Bankin Kasar Thailand yana ci gaba da kasancewa mai taka-tsantsan. Hukumar ta rage kudin ruwa na manufa zuwa 2.25% a karshen 2025, amma duk wani sauki na gaba zai dogara ne akan hauhawar farashin kaya da darajar baht. Ko da kudin ruwa ya ragu kara, bankuna ba su da wajibi na sassauta sharuddan lamuni, don haka tasirin kai tsaye kan samun lamunin gida na iya kasancewa mai iyaka.
Wace Yankunan Bangkok Ne Suka Fi Fama Da Raguwar Bukata?
Yankunan waje tare da sabbin layukan jirgin kasa na BTS da MRT, inda masu gini suka fara ayyuka da yawa domin masu saye na tsakiyar Thai, su ne suka fi fama da matsin lamba, musamman Bang Na, Bang Sue, da Rangsit. Yankunan tsakiya kamar Sukhumvit, Silom, da Sathon sun fi tsayawa saboda ci gaba da bukatar bakin haure.
Ta Yaya Kasuwar Bangkok Ta Bambanta Da Ta Phuket?
Phuket ta fi karkata zuwa masu saye na kasashen waje. Cinikayyar wadanda ba mazauna Thailand ba a tsibirin na kai 40-60% na sayarwa a bangaren alfarma. Wannan yana nufin cewa tsaurarawar lamuni ga masu ba'a Thailand ba ya shafi Phuket kai tsaye sosai. Babban abin da ke tafiyar da farashi a can shi ne darajar baht dangane da dala da euro, tare da kwararar yawon bude ido.
Me Ya Kamata Masu Saye Su Lura Da Shi A Wannan Yanayin?
A duba lafiyar kudin mai ginin gida sosai. Yayin da sayarwa ke raguwa, kamfanoni marasa karfi na iya jinkirta gini ko rage inganci. A nemi rahotannin kudi da aka duba (audited financials) kuma a duba yawan rukunin gidajen da aka riga aka sayar. Idan an sayar da kasa da 50% na rukunin gidaje a farkon gini, ya kamata a dauke shi a matsayin alamar hadari mai girma.
Shin Saye Domin Bayarwa Haya Ya Ci Gaba Da Cancanta Yanzu?
Riban haya bayan cire kudi (net rental yields) na condominium a Bangkok yana tsakanin 4-6% kowace shekara, yayin da bangaren gine-ginen da ake sarrafawa a Phuket ke bayarwa 5-8%. Da yake masu gini suna shirye su yi shawarwari kuma akwai karancin gasa daga masu saye na Thai, yanzu lokaci ne mai kyau don shirya tafiya domin duba gidaje da idanuwanka.
Menene Hasashen Rabin Karshen 2026?
Kiyasin kasuwa ya nuna cewa za a samu faduwar 10-15% a sabbin ayyukan da za a fara a Bangkok kafin karshen shekara. Wannan zai iyakance sabbin hajoji kuma zai taimaka wajen kiyaye farashi a tsawon lokaci. Ga masu saka jari da suke da niyyar tsawon shekaru 3-5, yanayin yanzu yana bayar da wata dama ta shiga da hadari matsakaici.
A Kadarorin Thailand, muna taimaka wa masu saye Hausawa su fahimci wannan sauyin kasuwa da kyau, su gano gidaje masu kyau a Phuket da Bangkok, kuma su yi shawarwari da masu gini daga matsayi mai karfi.
Tushen labari: The Business Times